2012 Election Top Issues and the Importance of Swing States

WASHINGTON, D.C. – With the election less than five months away, it is becoming easier to predict for which candidate certain states will cast their electoral votes. However, in undecided states, such as Ohio, Wisconsin, and even Missouri, anything could happen. 

Former policy advisor to President Clinton and political theorist William Galston said in a recent live web chat that winning over swing states is crucial both for Romney and President Obama.

“There are three main baskets of states--one in the Midwest, another in the Southwest, the third in the "Rim South,” Galston said, “The first is the largest (Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania). In the SW, Colorado and Nevada are critical. The Obama campaign thinks it has a chance in Arizona; I don't. In the Rim South, Virginia looks pretty promising for Obama; North Carolina, much less so. Florida's 29 electoral votes will be hotly contested, as usual, and so will New Hampshire.”

Map From: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Galston said the campaigns will likely make some changes in the coming months, in efforts to sway independent voters and swing states.

“The Romney campaign has done a pretty good job of maintaining focus on the economy,” Galston said, “By contrast, the Obama campaign has been all over the map. They're spending their time appealing to specific groups (e.g., women, students) on narrow issues rather than making a broad appeal to the country. I expect them to shift course pretty soon.”

The economy is one of the most important issues in this election. Many voters are convinced that continuing Obama’s policies for four more years could be detrimental to the already suffering economy. President Obama will have to convince the American people that his policies still have the potential to improve the economy.

“(Obama) can't evade the issue, and at this point he can't affect the economy very much between now and November. So, he has to make the case that he's done the best that anyone could have done in very difficult circumstances,” Galston said.

Another hot issue in this election cycle is healthcare. Opponents of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or “ObamaCare,” argue that the individual mandate, which requires individuals to purchase health insurance, is unconstitutional. According to a recent poll by CBS News/New York Times, only 24 percent of Americans want the entire law upheld and most people want the Supreme Court to overturn the individual mandate.

Galston said the Supreme Court’s decisions about the ACA will help gauge the impact of the healthcare issue in the 2012 election. 

“We'll know before the end of this month,” Galston said, referring to when the Supreme Court will make its decision about the ACA’s constitutionality.

Aside from the economy and healthcare, other top issues in this election include immigration policy, national defense, and moral issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion. The way voters decide on these issues, especially in swing states, will ultimately decide the next presidency and the future of the United States.